Logistics market update: September 2025

2025-09-06 19:00 Market update

Air Freight

In August, Kazakhstan published the results of aviation industry development for the first half of 2025. Currently, Kazakhstani airlines operate 831 international flights per week on 141 routes to 31 countries. Over the past six months, 36 new international routes were launched, and 8 foreign carriers entered the market. The country’s fleet was expanded with six new Airbus A320s and one Boeing 737. According to plans, by 2030 the number of aircraft in Kazakhstan will double and reach 207 units.

Expansion of the international network

WELLGO is pleased to report that, in the next four months of 2025, more international destinations will be added, with aviation Kazakhstan aviation authorities and partner countries are already coordinating cooperation plans for 2026:

In August, preparations were confirmed for the launch of Royal Jordanian’s Amman–Almaty service, starting in June 2026 with two flights per week. This will create new opportunities for both import and export shipments. The airline operates regular services to cities across the Gulf, the Middle East, Western Europe, and the U.S. East Coast and Canada.
Air Astana’s Almaty–New York route is not expected before Q2 2026. Aviation authorities and the airline are currently preparing for the FAA’s main audit.
Agreements have also been reached for new routes in 2026 to Singapore, Tokyo, Rome, and Vienna.
From 3 November 2025, SCAT Airlines will launch flights twice a week on the Astana–Belgrade route. The carrier has announced plans to extend this service from Belgrade to Morocco, Tunisia, Barcelona, and Larnaca. Previously, Kazakhstan and Serbia discussed launching the route under the “fifth freedom of the air” regime. It is still unclear whether SCAT will operate directly from Belgrade or partner with Air Serbia through an interline agreement.

Bishkek airport code change

On 11 August 2025, Bishkek’s Manas Airport officially changed its IATA code from FRU to BSZ.

WELLGO recommends shippers and partners update all templates and documentation linked to Bishkek Airport in advance to avoid delays in international shipments.

Fun fact: the code BSZ previously belonged to Bartletts Airport in Alaska, a small private airfield closed in 2008, which never handled scheduled flights.

European market outlook for autumn

From the beginning of autumn, several changes are expected on the European routes:

The last wide-body Neos flight Milan–Almaty is scheduled for 21 September. From 26 September, the route will utilise a Boeing 737, allowing only limited cargo capacity.
Lufthansa will suspend Kazakhstan flights during the winter season – from 26 October 2025 to 29 March 2026. One of the reasons cited is aircraft delivery delays and fleet reallocation.
This suspension will negatively affect cargo capacity from Central and Western Europe during peak season. There could be an increased reliance on Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways, longer transit times, and higher airfreight costs.

WELLGO are pleased to announce the launch of a new regular charter service from the Netherlands to Almaty at the end of August. Departures from the Netherlands are scheduled on Sundays, with attractive rates fixed until the end of September.

We consider this route a valuable addition to the European network and a good alternative to road groupage shipments via the Southern Corridor during periods of bad weather on the Caspian Sea—thanks to faster transit times and competitive freight rates.

Asian routes

During bilateral negotiations, Kazakhstan and Japan confirmed the launch of the first direct flight between Almaty and Tokyo in March 2026, likely to be operated by Air Astana’s Airbus A321LR. For now, cargo from Japan can be shipped with connections, e.g., via Seoul.

The Chinese routes remained stable throughout August, and this trend continues into early September. Cargo loading time is within one week, and freight rates remain unchanged.

Road Freight

This autumn, new amendments to the procedure for allocating foreign permits (“dovol”) for international road transport will take effect in Kazakhstan. Since early 2025, applications for permits have been submitted exclusively via E-license.

Starting from September, the following changes will apply:

The practice of assigning permits to the most active carriers has been abolished.
The territorial principle of distribution has been removed – permits can now be obtained regardless of the carrier’s registration location.
Penalties for transferring permits to third parties have been toughened: violators now face up to 1 year of blocking.

These new rules will make the process more transparent and simplify market entry for new carriers.

Shipments from China

Kazakhstan announced projects to modernize border checkpoints with China. Despite the overall decline in Russia–China trade in 2025, we see a gradual reduction in congestion and improved adaptation of carriers to the permit booking system.

Current status of border crossings:

Dostyk–Alashankou – booking required at least 1 month in advance; fast-track booking available 2 days prior (paid).
Altynkol–Khorgos – booking required at least 1 month in advance; fast-track booking available 3 days prior (paid).
Bakhty–Tacheng – booking required 3 days in advance; fast-track booking available 2 days prior (paid).
Maikapchagai–Zimunai – no queues.

Shipments from Europe

After increased demand during the August holidays, the European road transport market has stabilized in early September. However, in the second half of September, we expect worsening weather conditions on the Caspian Sea, leading to longer transit times and higher costs via the Southern Corridor.

Northern Corridor (via Russia): no queues at EU exit points, average border crossing time – 6 hours.
Southern Corridor (via Caspian Sea): waiting time for the Alat–Kuryk ferry is up to 1 week in early September.

Global Markets

At the end of August, Korean Air placed an order for 103 Boeing aircraft. This major deal will help the carrier expand services to the U.S., Central, and South America.

However, the aviation industry continues to face supply chain backlogs in aircraft and components. Low production rates at Boeing and Airbus cause delays in route launches, network cuts, and even prevent new players from entering the market:

The launch of Riyadh Air, originally planned for early 2025, has been postponed until at least Q3 2025 due to Boeing 787 Dreamliner delivery delays.
Ryanair did not receive its Boeing 737 MAX aircraft on time, resulting in a loss of over 5 million passengers in 2025 and route cancellations.
Air Baltic cancelled 19 routes due to engine supply shortages.
Air Astana postponed the Almaty–Tokyo launch from 2024 to 2026 for the same reason. The carrier ordered Boeing 787 Dreamliners back in 2012 (for delivery in 2017–2019), but now expects them only in 2026.
Qatar Airways postponed route expansion, while Lufthansa suspended flights to Kazakhstan—both citing aircraft shortages.

These supply constraints may lead to:

Reduced cargo capacity,
Higher rates,
Flight cancellations and delays,
Further fleet reallocations across routes.

In this environment, it will be crucial to diversify routes, use alternative hubs, combine air with road and rail transport, and plan shipments well in advance.

As WELLGO have highlighted in previous updates: Flexibility and a proactive approach are becoming key elements of resilient logistics.