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Logistics market update: October 2025

Market update
From September 2 to 14, Kazakhstan underwent the USAP-CMA (Universal Security Audit Programme — Continuous Monitoring Approach) audit, conducted by a team of ICAO international experts.

According to their results, international experts noted “significant progress” compared to the 2017 audit, in the following areas:

  • the level of alignment between national legislation and ICAO standards and recommended practices
  • the system of state oversight and supervision
  • practical implementation of aviation legislation by civil aviation entities
  • staff training and qualifications
  • simplification of formalities for international transport.

This not only strengthens trust from international partners but also creates favourable conditions for network expansion. In the coming years, ICAO’s positive assessments may accelerate negotiations on opening new routes, attracting foreign airlines to the Kazakhstani market.

Focus on Cargo Aviation

The audit, government directives, and regular working meetings with international partners underline Kazakhstan’s strategic focus on developing cargo aviation. The country’s geographic position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia makes it a promising transit hub.

In August, WELLGO reported on plans to establish the first national cargo airline by 2026. According to the Civil Aviation Committee, the project is currently at the analytical stage: the technical specifications have been developed, and the business model is being prepared. The project operator is the Samruk-Kazyna Fund.

In parallel, work is underway to develop Karaganda Airport into a cargo hub. A roadmap for developing its cargo capabilities was approved back in 2024. Already today, Karaganda Airport attracts international cargo operators, handling freighter flights from both Europe and Asia.

Such hubs fit into nationwide efforts to expand cargo infrastructure and integrate Kazakhstan into global transit chains.

India Becomes Closer

In September, Air Astana and Air India signed a codeshare agreement. Air Astana passengers now have access to 18 domestic and 9 international connections via Delhi and Mumbai on Air India’s network. In turn, Air India passengers can connect via Almaty to Air Astana flights.

In addition, authorities of Kazakhstan and India discussed launching direct routes Almaty–Hyderabad and Almaty–Ahmedabad.

Currently, 19 weekly passenger flights operate between the two countries on the Almaty–Mumbai and Almaty–New Delhi routes. Imports from India grew by more than 30% in 2023–2024 compared to previous years, with more than half of the imports consisting of pharmaceuticals and electrical equipment.
WELLGO offers comprehensive airfreight solutions from India to Kazakhstan.

October in Europe: Stable Demand, Tightening Supply

European routes remain stable. However, the end of the Golden Week holidays in China in mid-October will likely lead to a short-term surge in demand for Europe–Asia flights, reducing available capacity.

As we reported earlier, Lufthansa’s suspension of flights will also negatively impact capacity and pricing at the end of October. The last FRA–ALA flight is scheduled for October 26, 2025, with resumption planned for March 29, 2026. The future flight schedule is yet to be confirmed.

A positive update came in September from Qatar Airways on the DOH–ALA route: three weekly passenger flights are now operated with wide-body aircraft.

This autumn, Qatar Airways offers the following cargo capacity to Kazakhstan:
  • Daily on narrow-body Airbus A320
  • 3x weekly on passenger Airbus A330
  • 3x weekly on freighter Boeing 777

In addition, since September, regular charter flights from the Netherlands have enhanced west European capacity.

Chinese Holidays vs. October Logistics

In October, China observes its traditional holidays: this year’s official break runs from October 1 to 8.

In September, Kazakhstan and Hong Kong authorities held talks on developing air connectivity. As a result, the number of flights for airlines of each side was increased from 7 to 14 per week, including seven flights with fifth freedom traffic rights.

A Cathay Pacific representative also announced the airline’s plans to launch direct flights to Kazakhstan. As one of the world’s largest passenger and cargo carriers, with a network of over 100 destinations globally, Cathay’s entry into the Kazakhstani market would open up new opportunities for international logistics in the region.

Despite the holidays, no increase in rates from China has yet been observed, though near-term departures are only available from mid-October.
From September 23, 2025, new rules for crossing Kazakhstan’s state border by road vehicles and cargo came into force.
Key changes include the possibility of priority registration in the electronic queue system for certain categories of vehicles and cargo:
  • the designated postal operator (if the vehicle list is submitted to state revenue authorities at least 10 calendar days before booking);
  • transportation of animals, perishable and dangerous goods, as well as Kazakhstani export cargo accompanied by a customs or transit declaration;
  • humanitarian and military cargo, as well as shipments under official diplomatic requests (if lists are submitted to state revenue authorities at least 10 calendar days before booking).

Russia–Kazakhstan Road Freight

Despite the electronic queue system, reports of vehicle congestion at the Russian border appeared in late September. According to WELLGO data, in early October, over 10,000 trucks were waiting to cross into Kazakhstan.

The queues are due to strengthened controls on goods movement by both Russia and Kazakhstan. A large number of vehicles are being sent for inspection, extending transit times and raising costs of transport between the two countries.

We strongly recommend advance preparation for this route, including:
  • Issuing e-invoices (SNT) before shipment;
  • Checking cargo against restrictions (export controls, exemption lists);
  • Preparing all permits before dispatch.

China–Kazakhstan Road Freight

Similar trends are reported at the Kazakhstan–China border, where transit cargo checks have intensified and inspections have increased. As of early October, waiting times for inspections may reach up to 10 days.

Combined delays at the Chinese and Russian borders, along with China’s holidays and post-holiday demand recovery, may further extend delivery times and increase costs. For this reason, shipments should be planned in advance with additional time allowed for border crossings.

Current queue status at key border crossings:
  • Dostyk – Alashankou: bookings at least 1 month in advance, express booking available 2 days prior;
  • Altynkol – Khorgos: bookings at least 1 month in advance, express booking available 3 days prior;
  • Bakhty – Tacheng: bookings at least 2 weeks in advance, express booking available 2 days prior;
  • Maikapchagai – Zimunai: no queues reported.

Europe–Kazakhstan Road Freight

On the western corridor, transport processes were disrupted by the temporary closure of the Poland–Belarus border, which lasted nearly two weeks. Cargo flows were diverted through the Baltic states, leading to warehouse congestion, vehicle swaps, higher transport costs, and border queues exceeding one week. Transit cargo owners moving goods from China to Europe also faced delays.

By early October, the Poland–Belarus border had reopened, but the situation has yet to stabilize. Queues remain, rates fluctuate weekly, and freight offers are valid for only a few days. A gradual normalization is expected from the second half of October.

Meanwhile, autumn brings the storm season on the Caspian Sea. In early October, waiting times for ferry services at Baku port were around two weeks, further affecting delivery times on the southern route.
  • Northern route (via Russia): average border crossing time 3–4 days.
  • Southern route (via Caspian Sea): Alat–Kuryk ferry waiting time in early October — about 2 weeks.